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Iraq - 2014 Developments
In the spring of 2014 the country of Iraq started falling apart. Extremist
Sunni militant groups liberated western and northern areas of Iraq from
the central government. In June 2014 these groups took the second largest
city of Iraq - Mosul in the north. The Iraqi army seemed to disintegrate
in the face of smaller, less equipped forces. It was only when these Sunni
militant groups threatened Samara and Baghdad that the government forces
seemed to hold.
Information on the Iraq Conflict 2014
Iraq 2014 Conflict Synopsis
Timeline Iraq 2014
U.S. Intervention in Iraq
2014
Yazidis Plight in Sinjar,
Iraq
Air Strikes in
Iraq
Kurdistan
Peshmerga
Roots of the Conflict
There has always been tension and conflict between the Shia and Sunni
populations of Iraq. Saddam Hussein kept a lid on it through his rule of
terror; ensuring the Sunni minority enjoyed a privileged status in Iraq.
But with the U.S. invasion in March of 2003 the fortunes of the Sunnis was
reversed. This reversal was institutionalized with the infamous banning of
Baath Party members from participating in the new Iraqi government, civil
administration, and the dissolving of the Iraqi Army (Jerry Bremer hard at
work here). The Nouri al-Maliki government, supported by the U.S.
administration, ensured that the Sunnis would remain disenfranchised. It
was a matter of time before the Sunni tribes, former Baath Party members,
and hard-line former military leaders would join up with Sunni militant
extremists to carve out a Sunni enclave in parts of Iraq.
Miscalculation of the United States. In its haste to defeat the Islamic
State (IS) the United States may very well be ignoring the roots of the
problem. The Islamic State may very well succeed in establishing an
independent Sunni area (parts of Syria and Iraq) if the root problems are
not addressed. There is a reason that the Islamic State is successful; it
has the support of the majority of the Sunni population. If the
international community makes progress in addressing the grievances of the
Sunnis then the IS will eventually lose its support. Defeating the Islamic
State will have more to do with political progress and reform in Baghdad
than tactical military gains on the battlefield.
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
This insurgent group is a brutal Sunni militant group that has steadily
grown over the years. It has been involved in the fight against Syria's
Assad regime as well as against moderate Syrian rebels. The goal of ISIL
(or ISIS)
is to establish an Islamic caliphate spanning the Middle East region.
What's In a Name? ISIL is also called ISIS for Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria and the Islamic State. 39.
This is confusing because the word Syria in earlier times stood for Syria,
Lebanon and other adjoining areas of the Middle East. Another name in use is the Islamic State of Iraq
and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS tends to be used by the American media; others
use the Islamic State. However, the true translation probably is ISIL with
the L standing for the Levant; although the term Levant has colonial
connotations. The Levant is not just Syria; but also some
areas of Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, southern Turkey, and Israel.
32. So, the
name of ISIL could be telling - perhaps ISIL (or ISIS or the Islamic
State) has designs not just in Syria and Iraq but a strategic vision
beyond those two countries? 35. To
further confuse the name or label situation, the Grand Mufti of Egypt has
advised foreign media to refer to the group as "the Al-Qaida Separatists
in Iraq and Syria (QSIS); thus reducing the ability to claim Caliphate
status. 37.
Islamic State (IS). At the beginning of Ramadan, on Sunday June 29, 2014, the ISIS renamed
itself the Islamic State
and announced the establishment of the Caliphate.
IS Strategy and Tactical Plan for Iraq. The Islamic State is
following through on a well-thought out and executed plan developed over
the past several years. A lot of ground work was done to ensure that they
could provide a sembalance of governance and to ensure political (and
religious) obeyance to its rule. The jihadists are using a five-point
agenda with which to secure their caliphate. These points include
unification of jihadists, a balanced military plan, Sunni councils
(similar to the Awakening Councils of Anbar in 2007), appointment of a
political leader for jihadists to follow, and the implementation of
Shari'a.
Iraqi Sunni Groups Allied with the Islamic State
ISIS (now called the Islamic State) comprises just a part of the Sunni
uprising against the Shia-dominated Iraq government. There are many
rebellious groups that are currently aligned along side ISIS.
9. These groups include the General Military
Council for Iraqi Revolutionaries (GMCIR), Military Council of the Tribal
Revolutionaries (MCTR), Military Council of Anbar Tribal Revolutionaries
(MCATR), Anbar General Military Council, Tribal Revolutionaries
15., and several other groups. Some of these
factions believe in conservative Islamist principles, some are remnants
of Saddam's old Baath party apparatus, and some are former Sunni military
officers.
Kurdish Factor
The area of northeastern Iraq is also referred to as
Kurdistan. The Kurds are
a significant minority group in Iraq and have a quasi-independent region
and limited self-rule. The Kurds also have their own military force known
as the Peshmerga. In
early August the Islamic State fighters mounted an offensive against the
Kurds enjoying some quick success; however, the Peshmerga staged their own
offensive retaking some of the lost territory.
Incompetent Iraq Government
The Maliki regime has to assume much of the blame for the current strife.
It has failed to include the Sunni power brokers or population into the
government and has instituted harsh measures against the Sunni population.
New Government Needed. The international community has
recognized that the current Maliki regime needs to go. Many are pressing
Iraq political leaders to replace Maliki. Iran, one of Maliki's prime
supporters is reportedly ready to pull the plug as well. If a new
government is formed inclusive of the Sunni and Kurd minorities then there
is a chance that Iraq can stay together as a nation - instead of
fragmenting into three separate independent regions.
Borders Defined by European Powers
Iraq is a fragile state composed of three different groups of people -
Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds. The boundaries, like many country boundaries in
the Middle East, were defined by the European powers during and after the
first World War. With the defeat of the Ottoman Empire - new countries
were established based on the influence of the English and French; not on
the location of different types of peoples and tribes of the Middle East.
2. Had the borders been drawn
reflecting the inhabitants then much of the conflict in the Middle East
over the past century could have been avoided.
The Politics of the Middle East and the Iraq Conflict
It is difficult to figure out who supports who in the Middle East. Some
Arab countries support the Iraqi Sunni revolt while others are lined up
against it. The many different conflicts and disputes in the area (Israel
vs. Palestinians; Egypt vs. Muslim Brotherhood; Syrian conflict; Kurdish
moves for independence; Iran influence in the region; etc.) make for a
complicated picture. The Guardian provides "A guide to Middle
East politics in 2014" that helps clarify the different conflicts and
alliances within the region. View the
guide.
Who Benefits With the Escalation of the Iraq Conflict?
Contrary to popular belief, there are a lot of nations in the Middle East
that are watching with great interest the success of the Islamic State.
One might think that all nations would be adverse to the rise of this
extremist group (now an army); but . . . not so much!
29. There are some countries that benefit
from the current crisis in Iraq. At one time Turkey benefited from the
strife in Syria; however, that has changed now that the Islamic State has
risen. 36.
Ethnic Cleansing
Systematic Campaign of Ethnic Cleansing. The
Fighters of the Islamic State have been deliberately and systematically
forcing ethnic minorities from their homes. These war crimes include mass
summary killings and abductions. Many of the worst transgressions took
place in the Sinar area. Although the persecution against Christians and
the Yazidis have captured the headlines around the world, there are other
minorities in Iraq at risk. These groups include Assyrian Christians,
Turkmen Shi'a, Shabak Shi'a, and others.
Christians Under Threat. The Islamic State group gave Mosul's Christians until midday on Saturday,
July 19, 2014 to convert to Islam or face death. Many Christians fled to
the Kurdish zone for protection leaving their homes, businesses, and
possessions behind.
Yazidis Killed and Fleeing IS. The Yazais minority group
located in northwestern Iraq (around Sinjar) have fled in the thousands.
Hundreds have been killed by the Islamic State fighters.
Destruction of Shrines, Mosques, and Historical Sites
ISIS has been destroying historical and religious sites in the areas under
their control at an alarming rate. This destruction is not limited to just
Christian and Shia sites but Sunni as well. One of the most noted
destroyed structures was the Nabi Yunis (Mosque of the
Prophet Jonah) located in Mosul. 11.
Three State Partition
As of late July 2014 Iraq had virtually separated into three separate
states. The Islamic State holds much of the north and west of Iraq, the
Shia dominated central government holds the Baghdad area, almost all of
the south and much of the eastern area. The Kurds hold a large section of
northeastern Iraq to include the disputed city of Kirkuk. The likihood of
the Kurd area giving up its newly found independence is very small; it's
Peshmerga military formations can hold off the Shia Army and ISIS. The
central government has proven that it cannot mount an offensive against
the Islamic State in areas with a large percentage of the Sunni
population. It is doubtful that the militant army of the Islamic State and
its associated allies can take Baghdad and the southern areas of Iraq.
United States Response and Support to Iraq Government
The United States is clearly worried about the emergence of the Islamic
State within the borders of Iraq and Syria. The response has been slow and
deliberate; although there are few good options. A few hundred Special
Forces advisors (probably around 300) have been sent to advise and assist
the Iraqi military. Apache attack helicopters and drones have been sent to
Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) to provide reconnaissance and force
protection.
A Second Sunni Awakening? Many of the participants of the
Sunni Awakening that took place in 2007-2009 defected to the ISIL. The
Shia dominated Iraq government arrested many of the Awakening members and
did not follow through with promises of reforms, development, government
services, and positions in
the government once the Sunni tribes helped to defeat the Iraqi
insurgents. As a result many of the Sunni tribal leaders are backing the
Sunni revolt.
However, there are some that are still loyal to the Baghdad government.
And once again, there is the possibility that the U.S. may assist in this
"Second Sunni Awakening". 17.
U.S. Political Opposition to Assisting Iraq. There is not a lot of support to help the
Shia dominated Iraq government
within the United States. Many just wish that the problem will go away (it
won't) and some don't see very many good options to assist the Iraq
government and military. Some members of Congress are holding up sales of
F-16 fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters
5. as they worry about the weapons falling into the hands of the
insurgents and as being a waste of good money.
Use of Special Forces to Advise Iraq Units
There is consideration for the use of U.S. Army Special Forces units to
train, advise, and assist Iraqi Army units. This Combat Foreign Internal
Defense (FID) mission is a core competency of Army Special Forces.
1.
Advisor Strength and Roles. As of late July 2014 there were about 242 advisors
38. in Iraq performing
assessments on the ability of the Iraqi Army to fight the Islamic State.
10.
Insider Threat to U.S. Advisors in Iraq. Advisors sent to Iraq and working
with Iraqi Army units are at risk - not only from the Islamic State
fighters but from Shia and Sunni members of the Iraqi military and police.
4. The
Insider Threat in Afghanistan during the summer and fall of 2012
seriously threatened the coalition forces and prompted a slow down in
partnered and advisor operations in the fall of 2012 and drastic force
protection measures that reduced the effectiveness of the advisory effort
overall.
U.S. Military in Iraq as of July 2014
A recent news report 6. states that
there are about 825 U.S. troops on the ground in Iraq. Some are working
with the U.S. Embassy's Office of Security Cooperation, over 450 are
providing security at BIAP (the main airport just southeast of Baghdad)
and the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad, 160 are working in two
operations centers (one in Baghdad and one in Irbil), and about 90
advisors are gathering intelligence and conducting assessments on the
rapidly evolving situation.
August 2014 - Limited Airstrikes, Humanitarian Assistance, and
Arms to Kurds
The United States conducted a series of limited airstrikes in support of
the Kurds against fighters of the Islamic State. Several positions were
hit in support of Erbil (the Kurd capital). Air strikes also supported the
Kurd counterattack to regain two towns (Gwer and Mahmour) along the "Green
Line". 33. In addition, air strikes
were conducted to support the Yazidis people stranded on Sinjar Mountain.
Humanitarian Assistance. C-17s and C-130s dropped food and water to
stranded Yazidis who were atop Sinjar Mountain.
Arms and Supplies. The U.S. acknowledged that it was now supplying arms
and supplies directely to the Kurds. Previously the U.S. stance was that
arms could only come from the Iraq government.
What Should the United States Do?
This, of course, is a complex and politically charged question. We have a
President who takes a cautious approach (if any) to almost all foreign
policy issues. Many believe that we should intervene on behalf of the
Iraqi government immediately to stop and roll-back the advances of the
Islamic State and its other Sunni allies. Others say we should let the
situation develop since the authoritarian, sectarian, and incompetent
regime of Maliki is not worth fighting for. A recent publication by
Anthony H. Cordesman entitled Iraq: A Time to Act published on
the website of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
provides a very detailed examination of the situation and some very good
recommendations on how to proceed.
http://csis.org/publication/iraq-time-act
Possible Strategies to Contain or Defeat the Islamic State?
There are a number of possible strategies that can be used to try and
counter (or defeat) the Islamic State. The range of responses run from
"let the Arabs duke it out by themselves" to "lets put U.S. troops on the
ground". Learn more about developing a
strategys
to defeat the Islamic State.
United States Intervention in the 2014 Iraq Conflict
Initial Non-Combat Involvment. The United States intially sent in advisors
to evaluate the Iraqi armed forces and to conduct and assessment of the
situation. In addition, personnel were sent to Baghdad to protect embassy
employees. Overflights of military aircraft and unmanned drones took
place.
Limited Response in Early August. With the Islamic State fighters
appearing to be able to inflict reverses upon the Kurds (an unexpected
development) and the prospect of a humanitarian disaster (the Yazidis in
the Sinjar area) President Obama authorized the limited use of air support
by CENTCOM. See more in the
United
States intervention in 2014 Iraq.
Maps
Struggle for Iraq: In Maps. BBC News Middle East.
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034
General and Specific Maps of Iraq.
www.iraqwarnews.info/maps.htm
Iraq - ISIS Conflict in Maps, Photos and Videos. The New York Times.
www.nytimes.com/ . . . the-iraq-isis-conflict-in-maps . . .
Various Maps of Iraq and the Islamic State by CNN
www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/06/world/maps-iraq-unrest/
Websites with Info on the Islamic State and Current Crisis in
Iraq
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant
Institute for the Study of War Iraq Updates
http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/
Understanding War - Iraq
http://www.understandingwar.org/iraq
BBC News - Struggle for Iraq
www.bbc.com/news/24758587
Blogs Commenting on Current Events in Iraq
Institute for the Study of War Iraq Updates
www.iswiraq.blogspot.com
The Guardian - Iraq
www.theguardian.com/world/iraq
Fox News Insider - Iraq War
http://foxnewsinsider.com/tag/iraq-war
Papers and Reports on ISIS in Iraq
(listed in
chronological order by date)
July 30, 2014. The Islamic State: A Counter-Strategy for a
Counter-State, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), by Jessica D.
Lewis. Accessed
here on 31 July 2014.
July 28, 2014. Life Under ISIS in Mosul, by Jenna Lefler,
Institute for the Study of War. A read on what life in Mosul, Iraq's
second largest city, is like under the rule of the Islamic State (ISIS)
can be accessed at this
link.
July 25, 2014. From Theory to Action: The Rationale behind the
Re-establishment of the Caliphate, by Michael W. S. Ryan, The
Jamestown Foundation. Read
here.
Endnotes
1. For more on FID and Special Forces see "Foreign Internal Defense in
Iraq", Special Warfare Magazine, January-March 2012 available
here. 2. For more on the artificial borders of
Iraq read "What We Can Learn From Lawrence of Arabia", Truth Out,
June 28, 2014 at this
link. 3. For more on the threats against
Christians in Iraq see "Under threat, Iraq's Christians flee city of
Mosul", Stars and Stripes, July 19, 2014 at this
link. 4. For more on the insider threat to
advisors in Iraq see "Report: Assessment shows risk to potential US
advisers in Iraq", Stars and Stripes, July 14, 2014 at this
link. 5. For more on opposition within Congress
to helping Iraq see "Democrat threatens to block arms sales to Iraq", The
Hill.com, July 24, 2014 at this
link. 6. For numbers of U.S. troops in Iraq as
of July 2014 see a news article by Military Times dated July 24,
2014 at this
link. 7. For more on ethnic cleansing by the
Islamic State see a news release by Amnesty International dated September
2, 2014 at this
link. 8. For more on recruitment of westerns to
the fight by the extremists and the subsequent danger they pose when they
return to their homelands in Europe and the United States see Jihadist Sanctuaries in Syria and Iraq: Implications
for the United States, Seth G. Jones testimony before U.S. House of
Representatives Committee on Homeland Security, July 24, 2014.
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT400/CT414/RAND_CT414.pdf 9.
For a detailed description of the many Sunni groups allied with the
Islamic State see A Marriage of Convenience: The Many Faces of Iraq's
Sunni Insurgency, by Bashdar Pasho Ismaeel, The Jamestown Foundation,
July 25, 2014 at this
link. 10. For more on numbers of advisors in
late July 14 see "Obama quietly sends more advisors to Iraq", The
Hill, July 27, 2014 at this
link. 11. See ISIS is destroying both Shia
and Sunni shrines and buildings in Mosul, History News Network, July
27, 2014 at this
link. 15. Read an in-depth article on the
'Tribal Revolutionaries' - a Sunni tribal confederation allied with the
Islamic State - in The doubt inside Iraq's Sunni "revolution", by
Ned Parker and Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Thomson Reuters, August 2014 at this
link. (PDF). 16. For more on the definition of
"Levant" see Wikipedia's page on the
Levant.
17. See "U.S. Backs Sunni Plan to Fight Islamic State Jihadists in Iraq",
The Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2014 at this
link. 22. Iran is now in favor of Iraqi Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki leaving his position. See "Iran Seeking Successor
to Iraqi PM Maliki: Official", The New York Times, August 8, 2014
at this
link. 29. For more on those Middle East
countries that could possibly benefit from the continuation of the ISIS -
Iraq government confrontation see Hoping for Trouble in Iraq, by
Jon B. Alterman, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), June
17, 2014 at this
link. See Iraq: The Enemy of My Enemy is Not My Friend, By
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS),
July 16, 2014 at this
link. 30. For more on the five point agenda of
the Islamic State see The Islamic State's Strategic and Tactical Plan
for Iraq, The Jamestown Foundation, August 8, 2014 at this
link. 31. For more on arms to the Kurds see "US
Sending Arms to Kurds in Iraq", Associated Press, August 11, 2014 at this
link. 32. See "Lost in Translation", Small
Wars Journal, August 4, 2014 at this
link for more on the significance of the ISIS name.
33. For more on US airstrikes supporting Kurds see "Capitalizing on U.S.
Bombing, Kurds Retake Iraqi Towns", The New York Times, August
10, 2014 at this
link.
34. For more on the humanitarian airdrops to Yazidis see "Fort Bragg-based
soldiers aid in humanitarian airdrops in Iraq", Stars and Stripes,
August 10, 2014 at this
link.
35. For more on the "name" see "It doesn't matter if you call it ISIS,
ISIL or Islamic State, the extremist brand is winning", The Washington
Post, August 13, 2014 at this
link. 36. For more on Turkey and its relationship with the Islamic
State see "In Turkey, a late crackdown on Islamist fighters", The
Washington Post, August 12, 2014 at this
link. 37. See "Islamic Authority: Extremists no "Islamic State",
Associated Press, August 24, 2014 at this
link. 38. Learn more about past advising efforts
in Iraq in Advisors in Iraq. |